What 44 over-asking closings in June actually tell us about where to buy right now — and where not to.
If you’ve been anywhere near a listing in San Francisco this summer, you’ve felt it: homes are moving fast, offers are stacking up, and prices are landing in places that don’t quite square with the comps. The district-wide numbers back up the feeling — in June alone, 44 homes across the city closed a million dollars or more over asking. That’s not a typo, and it’s not an outlier. It’s a pattern.
We’ve had a strong run of closings ourselves this July, and it would be easy to just call that a good market and leave it there. But the more useful story — the one we’re actually watching for our clients — is what’s driving those numbers, and where they don’t apply.
Where the Frenzy Is Actually Coming From
A meaningful share of that frenzy is coming from a very specific source: the wave of wealth moving through the city right now on the back of the AI boom. When a segment of buyers is competing with equity payouts and compensation packages that dwarf a typical down payment, they can afford to treat an asking price as a starting point rather than a ceiling. That’s not a criticism — it’s just math, and it’s reshaping certain corners of the market in real time. Offers are landing with escalation clauses stacked on escalation clauses, appraisal contingencies waived before the ink is dry, and inspection periods measured in hours instead of days.
The Heat Isn’t Everywhere
Here’s what actually matters if you’re trying to buy a home this year: that heat is not evenly distributed. It’s concentrated in specific property types, specific price points, and specific pockets of inventory that happen to intersect with where that money wants to live. Move even slightly outside that intersection — a home that needs a little work, a listing that sat through a quiet open house weekend, a property in a location that’s excellent but not currently “hot” — and the math looks completely different. The comps are calmer. The competition is thinner. The value is still there.
Why Winning Isn’t Always Winning
This is the part of the job we actually care about. Winning a bidding war is easy to celebrate and hard to walk back from. We’ve watched buyers get so locked into winning one specific home that they pay a number that will take the better part of two decades just to break even on, before they’ve built a dollar of real equity. That’s not a home purchase — that’s an expensive lesson in market timing. Our job is to make sure our clients never have to learn it the hard way.
How We Read a Listing Before We Write an Offer
That means going into every offer with a clear read on which kind of property we’re actually looking at: is this one being pulled into the AI-money orbit, or is this one sitting in the calmer part of the market where a strong, smart offer still wins? It changes how we structure an offer, how aggressive we get on price versus terms, and — sometimes — whether we tell a client to walk away from a home they love because the math doesn’t love them back.
That’s the experience behind every one of the closings we’re celebrating this month. Not luck, and not just being first to see a new listing — knowing which market we’re actually in before we write the offer.
Let’s Talk Before You Offer
If you’re weighing a move right now and trying to figure out whether the home in front of you is priced for reality or priced for a bidding war, that’s exactly the conversation we want to have. Reach out, and we’ll walk through it with you.
The Montgomery Lee Bottom Line
San Francisco isn’t having one housing market right now — it’s having two. One is fueled by AI wealth that can afford to treat an asking price as a suggestion, and one is calmer, saner, and still full of good buys for people willing to look slightly to the side of the frenzy. Knowing which one you’re standing in before you write an offer is the difference between building equity and buying yourself a very expensive lesson in market timing. That’s the read we bring to every offer we write, and it’s why our clients keep closing.
Frequently Asked Questions
Q: Is all of San Francisco this competitive right now?
No. The bidding wars you’re hearing about are concentrated in specific property types and price points — mostly where AI-driven wealth is competing hardest. Move outside that narrow band and you’ll find listings with far less competition and much saner pricing.
Q: How can I tell if a listing is priced for reality or priced for a bidding war?
Look at the signals beyond the list price itself: how long it’s been on the market, whether similar homes nearby sold near or far above asking, and how the property fits the profile buyers with AI wealth are chasing. We read these signals on every listing before advising a client on strategy.
Q: What actually happens if I pay too much over asking?
You can end up years, sometimes decades, away from breaking even before you’ve built real equity. A home that costs you a bidding war today can cost you the better part of your investment timeline tomorrow — which is exactly why we treat the offer strategy as seriously as the house hunt itself.
Q: Should I just wait for the market to cool off?
Not necessarily. Waiting on an overheated segment of the market to cool doesn’t help you if the value you actually need is sitting in a calmer segment right now. The better move is usually finding the right property today, not timing the whole market.
Q: How does Montgomery & Lee help with this?
We go into every offer with a clear read on whether a property sits inside the current frenzy or outside it, and we structure the offer accordingly — sometimes advising a client to walk away from a home if the math doesn’t hold up. It’s the same discernment behind every closing we’ve celebrated this month.