As the fall selling season began, most Bay Area markets saw significant year-over-year (y-o-y) increases in their number of home sales in September. Of the larger county markets, San Francisco had a particularly dramatic 35% increase in sales. All counties except San Francisco had year-over-year increases in their number of active listings on the market, however SF saw its number of homes for sale plunge y-o-y by 28%. The big increase in sales coupled with the large decline in listings has added huge pressure to the SF market.
September sales of $5 million+ homes in the Bay Area soared 62% from August and 55% from September 2024. The big markets for $5m+ homes are – in order of sales volume – Santa Clara, San Mateo, San Francisco and Marin Counties: All saw dramatic year-over-year increases of 39% to 60%. Santa Clara and San Mateo Counties, beneficiaries of their more established AI booms, dominate sales in this price segment, with 64% of all year-to-date sales in the Bay Area. The $5m+ markets of Napa and Sonoma Counties remain very strong buyer’s markets with high numbers of (spectacular) listings for sale as compared to buyer demand.
Year-to date median house sales prices increased year-over-year in Santa Clara (5.3%), San Francisco (3.8%) and San Mateo (1%) Counties. Most other Bay Area counties, not (yet) significantly affected by the AI boom and more affected by sluggish economic indicators prevailing in most of 2025 to date, saw unchanged or declining median house prices. Q3 median sales prices (as opposed to YTD prices) shall be delineated in the individual market reports coming next week.
After huge monthly year-over-year increases in the number of price reductions in 2025 – the y-o-y increase in May 2025 was 65% – the number plunged in September, continuing its decline from its June peak, and was essentially unchanged from September 2025, a very significant shift in market dynamics. In most area markets, sellers are no longer racing to reduce prices to attract the attention of buyers.
DISCLAIMER: Statistics are generalities, essentially summaries of widely disparate data generated by dozens, hundreds or thousands of unique, individual sales occurring within different time periods. They are best seen not as precise measurements, but as broad, comparative indicators, with reasonable margins of error. Anomalous fluctuations in statistics are not uncommon, especially in smaller, expensive market segments. Last period data should be considered estimates that may change with late-reported data. Different analytics programs sometimes define statistics – such as “active listings,” “days on market,” and “months supply of inventory” – differently: what is most meaningful are not specific calculations but the trends they illustrate. Most listing and sales data derives from the local or regional multi-listing service (MLS) of the area specified in the analysis, but not all listings or sales are reported to MLS and these won’t be reflected in the data. “Homes” signifies real-property, single-household housing units: houses, condos, co-ops, townhouses, duets and TICs (but not mobile homes), as applicable to each market.
City/town names refer specifically to the named cities and towns, unless otherwise delineated. Multi-county metro areas will be specified as such. Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers to be considered approximate. Many aspects of value cannot be adequately reflected in median and average statistics: curb appeal, age, condition, amenities, views, lot size, quality of outdoor space, “bonus” rooms, additional parking, quality of location within the neighborhood, and so on. How any of these statistics apply to any particular home is unknown without a specific comparative market analysis.
Median Sales Price is that price at which half the properties sold for more and half for less. It may be affected by seasonality, “unusual” events, or changes in inventory and buying trends, as well as by changes in fair market value. The median sales price for an area will often conceal an enormous variety of sales prices in the underlying individual sales.
Dollar per Square Foot is based upon the home’s interior living space and does not include garages, unfinished attics and basements, rooms built without permit, patios, decks or yards (though all those can add value to a home). These figures are usually derived from appraisals or tax records, but are sometimes unreliable (especially for older homes) or unreported altogether. The calculation can only be made on those home sales that reported square footage.
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Compass is a real estate broker licensed by the State of California, DRE 01527235. Equal Housing Opportunity. This report has been prepared solely for information purposes. The information herein is based on or derived from information generally available to the public and/or from sources believed to be reliable. No representation or warranty can be given with respect to the accuracy or completeness of the information. Compass disclaims any and all liability relating to this report, including without limitation any express or implied representations or warranties for statements contained in, and omissions from, the report. Nothing contained herein is intended to be or should be read as any regulatory, legal, tax, accounting or other advice and Compass does not provide such advice. All opinions are subject to change without notice. Compass makes no representation regarding the accuracy of any statements regarding any references to the laws, statutes or regulations of any state are those of the author(s). Past performance is no guarantee of future results.