In late November, Bay Area markets began moving into the mid-winter holiday slowdown, which in December typically results in the lowest counts of the year for new listings coming on market and homes going into contract. Homes are still listed and deals continue to be made, just at a much slower pace, and this is usually the period when buyers can negotiate most aggressively on unsold properties with longer days-on-market.
It is difficult to make definitive determinations about where the market is heading in 2025 from Q4 statistics, but in the last several years, demand rebounded substantially early in the new year and then accelerated into spring. And some agents have reported a significant increase in clients wanting to list their homes next year. As always, much depends on political and macroeconomic factors that can be challenging to predict.
This report will look at supply and demand dynamics in November – but note that many of November’s sales statistics reflect listings that went into contract in October – and our January report will review longer-term, annual numbers that will provide greater context to 2024 market conditions and trends.
As of the first week of December, 30-year conforming mortgage interest rates were ticking down again, but still about a half point above early October’s. Stock markets have continued to hit new highs on almost a daily basis; inflation ticked up slightly (11/13/24 reading); the Fed dropped their benchmark rate another quarter percent (11/7/24); the jobs report rebounded (12/6/24); and consumer confidence hit its highest reading in 7 months (12/6/24). These economic indicators may impact different market segments differently depending on whether interest rates or stock values most affect their buyers.
DISCLAIMER: Statistics are generalities, essentially summaries of widely disparate data generated by dozens, hundreds or thousands of unique, individual sales occurring within different time periods. They are best seen not as precise measurements, but as broad, comparative indicators, with reasonable margins of error. Anomalous fluctuations in statistics are not uncommon, especially in smaller, expensive market segments. Last period data should be considered estimates that may change with late-reported data. Different analytics programs sometimes define statistics – such as “active listings,” “days on market,” and “months supply of inventory” – differently: what is most meaningful are not specific calculations but the trends they illustrate. Most listing and sales data derives from the local or regional multi-listing service (MLS) of the area specified in the analysis, but not all listings or sales are reported to MLS and these won’t be reflected in the data. “Homes” signifies real-property, single-household housing units: houses, condos, co-ops, townhouses, duets and TICs (but not mobile homes), as applicable to each market.
City/town names refer specifically to the named cities and towns, unless otherwise delineated. Multi-county metro areas will be specified as such. Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers to be considered approximate. Many aspects of value cannot be adequately reflected in median and average statistics: curb appeal, age, condition, amenities, views, lot size, quality of outdoor space, “bonus” rooms, additional parking, quality of location within the neighborhood, and so on. How any of these statistics apply to any particular home is unknown without a specific comparative market analysis.
Median Sales Price is that price at which half the properties sold for more and half for less. It may be affected by seasonality, “unusual” events, or changes in inventory and buying trends, as well as by changes in fair market value. The median sales price for an area will often conceal an enormous variety of sales prices in the underlying individual sales.
Dollar per Square Foot is based upon the home’s interior living space and does not include garages, unfinished attics and basements, rooms built without permit, patios, decks or yards (though all those can add value to a home). These figures are usually derived from appraisals or tax records, but are sometimes unreliable (especially for older homes) or unreported altogether. The calculation can only be made on those home sales that reported square footage.
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Compass is a real estate broker licensed by the State of California, DRE 01527235. Equal Housing Opportunity. This report has been prepared solely for information purposes. The information herein is based on or derived from information generally available to the public and/or from sources believed to be reliable. No representation or warranty can be given with respect to the accuracy or completeness of the information. Compass disclaims any and all liability relating to this report, including without limitation any express or implied representations or warranties for statements contained in, and omissions from, the report. Nothing contained herein is intended to be or should be read as any regulatory, legal, tax, accounting or other advice and Compass does not provide such advice. All opinions are subject to change without notice. Compass makes no representation regarding the accuracy of any statements regarding any references to the laws, statutes or regulations of any state are those of the author(s). Past performance is no guarantee of future results.