In 2024, San Francisco median house and condo sales prices increased year over year, though still running below the 2021-2022 pandemic-boom highs. The numbers of new listings and sales rose from 2023, but volumes remained well below long-term norms. Fueled by rising stock markets, luxury home sales outperformed the general market. Overbidding of asking price increased, and, on average, listings sold a few days faster than last year. Details follow within this report.
Macroeconomically, there were quite a few ups and downs in 2024. The inflation rate dropped from 3.1% to 2.7%, a welcome decline, but not as large and consistent as hoped. In September, the Fed reduced its benchmark rate for the first time in 4 years, followed by 2 more cuts in November and December, but, confounding expectations, interest rates rose, ending the year higher than when it began. The Fed also released a tentative forecast of only 2 small rate reductions in 2025, but the Fed often alters its future “guidance” depending on economic developments. Despite significant volatility, stock markets saw very substantial appreciation in 2024, boosting household wealth, especially for the more affluent. Consumer confidence rose in the second half of the year to end 6% higher than a year earlier and seems poised to improve further.
Real estate markets are fiercely seasonal, and as usual, December was the slowest month for both new listings and listings going into contract. Activity typically rebounds early in the year and then accelerates rapidly into spring, which customarily sees the year’s most heated market conditions. In the Bay Area, if the weather cooperates, the “spring” market often begins well before the official start of the season, but much depends on political/economic factors that are challenging to predict.
There seems to be something about starting a new year that renews optimism for the future and motivates people to move forward with life plans – that often include real estate.
DISCLAIMER: Statistics are generalities, essentially summaries of widely disparate data generated by dozens, hundreds or thousands of unique, individual sales occurring within different time periods. They are best seen not as precise measurements, but as broad, comparative indicators, with reasonable margins of error. Anomalous fluctuations in statistics are not uncommon, especially in smaller, expensive market segments. Last period data should be considered estimates that may change with late-reported data. Different analytics programs sometimes define statistics – such as “active listings,” “days on market,” and “months supply of inventory” – differently: what is most meaningful are not specific calculations but the trends they illustrate. Most listing and sales data derives from the local or regional multi-listing service (MLS) of the area specified in the analysis, but not all listings or sales are reported to MLS and these won’t be reflected in the data. “Homes” signifies real-property, single-household housing units: houses, condos, co-ops, townhouses, duets and TICs (but not mobile homes), as applicable to each market.
City/town names refer specifically to the named cities and towns, unless otherwise delineated. Multi-county metro areas will be specified as such. Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers to be considered approximate. Many aspects of value cannot be adequately reflected in median and average statistics: curb appeal, age, condition, amenities, views, lot size, quality of outdoor space, “bonus” rooms, additional parking, quality of location within the neighborhood, and so on. How any of these statistics apply to any particular home is unknown without a specific comparative market analysis.
Median Sales Price is that price at which half the properties sold for more and half for less. It may be affected by seasonality, “unusual” events, or changes in inventory and buying trends, as well as by changes in fair market value. The median sales price for an area will often conceal an enormous variety of sales prices in the underlying individual sales.
Dollar per Square Foot is based upon the home’s interior living space and does not include garages, unfinished attics and basements, rooms built without permit, patios, decks or yards (though all those can add value to a home). These figures are usually derived from appraisals or tax records, but are sometimes unreliable (especially for older homes) or unreported altogether. The calculation can only be made on those home sales that reported square footage.
Photo use under the Creative Commons License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0/
Compass is a real estate broker licensed by the State of California, DRE 01527235. Equal Housing Opportunity. This report has been prepared solely for information purposes. The information herein is based on or derived from information generally available to the public and/or from sources believed to be reliable. No representation or warranty can be given with respect to the accuracy or completeness of the information. Compass disclaims any and all liability relating to this report, including without limitation any express or implied representations or warranties for statements contained in, and omissions from, the report. Nothing contained herein is intended to be or should be read as any regulatory, legal, tax, accounting or other advice and Compass does not provide such advice. All opinions are subject to change without notice. Compass makes no representation regarding the accuracy of any statements regarding any references to the laws, statutes or regulations of any state are those of the author(s). Past performance is no guarantee of future results.